Professor Neil Ferguson wrong again

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In 2001 Professor Neil Ferguson, professor of mathematical biology and director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London, predicted up to 150,000 could die in the U.K. alone from mad cow disease. Panicked politicians and ballistic bureaucrats ordered the culling of over 6 million animals and economically vandalised rural Britain.

Only 177 people died.

Professor Michael Thrusfield of Edinburgh University claimed Professor Ferguson’s model made incorrect assumptions about transmission. This government expert’s model was criticised as “not fit for purpose” and “severely flawed”, and established a history of wildly overestimating death rates through his prediction models.

Nevertheless, when President Trump & Boris Johnson consulted their government experts, they in turn relied on a model again developed by Professor Ferguson, this time predicting 2.2 million deaths in America and 500,000 in England.

Two weeks later Professor “Woopsies” Ferguson revised his prediction, much like the average tarot card reader, to possibly much lower than 20,000 deaths in the U.K – one twenty-fifth of his first guess.

It was his initial report which told world leaders entire households should stay in isolation if any member showed any symptoms. World leaders panicked and hit the big red button – but there was no emergency.

Preventing Preventable Deaths “At Any Cost”

The rates of new coronavirus infections in America, England, Sweden, Italy, Israel, France, Germany, Switzerland and Spain have been plotted by Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University. The actual historical data (not models with the reliability of crystal ball-gazing) tell a sobering story.

Coronavirus has peaked and subsided in the exact same way regardless of social freedom or heavy restrictions in different countries. The number of infected peaks in the sixth week and rapidly subsides by the eighth.

More Infectious & Less Fatal Than Experts Guessed

A team at the University of Oxford have released findings using a different model using different assumptions than Professor “Woopsies” Ferguson. They say up to half the people in the United Kingdom could already have been infected. This concurs with a study out of Stanford University finding the covid-19 infection rate is much higher – 50 to 85 times higher – than reported. Research on a large group of blood donors in Denmark also backs up the studies contradicting Professor “Woopsies” Ferguson.

If coronavirus is much more infectious than originally estimated by government experts, it’s not all bad news. In fact it also means the mortality rate is much lower than the 1-3% indicated by the World Health Organisation. WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has previously suggested 3.4%. This would translate into 340 deaths per 10,000 infected persons. Stanford’s study would mean the mortality rate is just 0.14% or lower, making covid-19 about as deadly as the seasonal flu, which has a yearly mortality rate around 0.1% according to both Anthony Fauci and Dr. Tedros.

But What About Italy?

It’s at this point government overreach apologists point to Italy and ask, “But what about Italy? Their mortality rate would have been ours if the government hadn’t acted.” It’s not known where they get their certainty the only variable between all the nations of the world is government regulation, but there are in fact other variables. Things like multi-generational housing, crowded town planning and climate can also exacerbate transmission rates.

Italy’s population is the oldest in Europe – nearly one in four is over 65.

Italy’s health system has been overwhelmed before. In 2017 it again collapsed under the weight of a bad flu season, and also has unusually high flu mortality rates, according to Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel.

Consistent with this theory, Germany normally has low flu transmission and mortality rates and is having similar results with coronavirus as well. He describes Israel’s unprecedented quarantine and closure as “mass hysteria” and coronavirus as a “lower-risk epidemic.”

The Cost of “At Any Cost” Expert Advice

Tens of thousands of Australians have lost their jobs and businesses because our governments acted on the doomsday predictions of a severely flawed model by an expert with form. What’s startling to me is the people who, while believing we should care for the environment to the best of our ability, reject “at any cost” policy demands from climate alarmists based on nothing more than typically flawed and historically false models and doomsday predictions. Many of these normally more circumspect folks have suddenly believed government experts to be infallible and even repeated the propaganda that sceptics are heartlessly risking lives.

Dangerous precedents have been set for future governments of unknown character and integrity that severely jeopardise our Constitution. Parliaments designed to hold power to account with questions and government by consent of the people’s representatives have been suspended while the most dramatic changes to our freedoms and economy are hastily implemented with insufficient scrutiny by MIA Opposition MPs and an incurious and mainstream media, ineffectual as the Fourth Estate.

Democracy, Not Technocracy

We don’t need the experts any more. Politicians, Premiers and the Prime Minister now have more than enough hard data to be assured the crisis has been avoided locally (if there ever was one) and globally. It’s been mathematically demonstrated sacrificing the economy and closing society was a mistake. It’s fair to say they thought they were saving lives, but continuing this charade of necessary caution is a mere exercise in saving face. It’s time to reopen beaches, churches, cafes and all other businesses.

Let’s learn from our mistakes, forever remembering to take a breath before heeding experts who advocate “action at any cost”.

Do you have a tough question you’d like Dave to tackle? Is there a tweet, meme, article or video out there you’d like Dave to comment on? Is there an argument you’ve come up against you just don’t know how to answer even though you’re sure it’s wrong?

Send it to dave@PelloweTalk.com or comment below and your question, story tip or challenge may be included in the next episode!

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